Thomas Chow is a postgraduate student studying in the MA International Political Economy programme. He grew up in Hong Kong, and his research interests include Asia-Pacific affairs, international trade, and macroeconomic policies.
The Pacific Islands have become more than resort destinations for American and Chinese tourists in recent years. Following the surprising military pact signed by China and the Solomon Islands in 2022, Western countries have put more effort into increasing their diplomatic presence to counter the growing Chinese influence in the region. In a sense, the Pacific Islands have turned into a chessboard on the sea, with each great power sitting on a canoe looking to make its next move.
Great Power Competitions
Located between China and the United States, the Pacific Islands naturally become a platform for competition between the two great powers. In addition to the security pact signed with the Solomon Islands, China has spent more efforts in the recent decades to improve its relationships with Pacific Islands countries (PICs). In May 2022, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi embarked on an unprecedented trip to the region, visiting 8 PICs in 10 days and signalling to the West its diplomatic reach. The United States responded swiftly, sending Secretary of State Anthony Blinken to visit the region in September 2022. Washington further enhanced the cooperative efforts by releasing the first-ever Pacific Partnership Strategy in the same year.
Merely focusing on the wrestling match between Beijing and Washington, however, neglects the influence from the region’s closest neighbour both figuratively and geographically. Australia, a country that sits right outside the Pacific Islands, has also been proactively trying to improve its relationship with PICs.
Australia: From Peacekeeping to AUKUS
Australia, due to its proximity to the region, has long been an active player in the Pacific Islands. It has intervened on multiple occasions of security crisis and government breakdowns, most notably in 2003 when then Australian Prime Minister John Howard sent police forces and arm forces to the Solomon Islands amid ethnic conflicts. More recently in 2017, Australia announced the “Pacific Step-up” policy, which aimed to enhance Australia’s engagement with the Pacific Islands region through economic cooperation, greater integration, and closer relationships with PICs. The policy held a specific emphasis on security and defence, which was demonstrated in 2020 when Australia began to help Papua New Guinea restore its Lombrum Naval Base to allow it to serve as a base for Australian and American navy vessels.
Australia’s most notable efforts in increasing its presence in the region came in the form of AUKUS, a trilateral security partnership announced in 2021 between Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States that enabled Australia to acquire nuclear-powered submarine technology. While the partnership will primarily look to cover security needs in the South China Sea, its geopolitical implications are still significant in the Pacific Islands, especially as China began to increase its military presence in the region. Some leaders from PICs, however, were not exactly happy with the security partnership. They indicated that there should be more communication between the Pacific Island nations and AUKUS members, considering the geopolitical significance of the deal in the region. Manasseh Sogavare, Prime Minister of the Solomon Islands, said that the Pacific states should have been “consulted” on the matter.
Threats Overblown?
When Solomon Islands announced the security pact with China a year ago, policymakers and commentators in the West rushed to raise concerns, advocating for Washington and its allies to respond to growing Chinese influence proactively. Such concerns can be warranted to some extent, as the pact clearly indicates Beijing’s intention. But the security concerns need not to be overemphasised, especially as the pact mostly enables China to supply equipment and training to the Solomon Islands’ Police Force. Building a full-scale naval base in the Solomon Islands is not a feasible option for China at least soon. Domestically, property rights issues and election dynamics greatly reduce the potential for a Chinese naval base. Internationally, building a base in a country this close to important American military footholds such as Guam and the Marshall Islands would trigger strong responses from Washington and its allies.
Economically, Australia remains far and away the largest donor to PICs, with $17bn in Official Development Finance (ODF) disbursed to the region between 2008 and 2021. By contrast, China (as the third-largest donor), disbursed $3.9bn at the same time. Trends suggest that China is pivoting away from the strategy of placing large-scale investments across multiple PICs and is instead pursuing a narrower approach that aims to improve relationships with newly acquired friends such as the Solomon Islands and Kiribati. Both these countries switched their diplomatic alliances from Taiwan to China in 2019.
China’s foremost intention is clear: to leverage its financial prowess and gain diplomatic recognition from Pacific Island countries. Currently there are four countries in the Pacific Islands that recognise Taiwan: Palau, Nauru, Tuvalu, and the Marshall Islands. One can expect Beijing to continue pushing for more diplomatic presence in the region and further marginalising Taiwan’s status in the world. For Australia and the United States, this means they would face more competition from China for economic influence in the region, particularly in countries like the Solomon Islands and Kiribati where diplomatic relationship with Beijing was just established and China looks to repay the favour.
The Way Forward: Focusing on the Urgent
For PICs themselves, which country comes out on top in the great power competitions perhaps matters much less than their most pressing issue currently: climate change. The Pacific Islands is the region most vulnerable to the ongoing climate crisis. According to the World Risk Report 2021 published by Bündnis Entwicklung Hilft, a German NGO, the top 3 countries most vulnerable to extreme natural events were all located in the Pacific Islands (Vanuatu, the Solomon Islands and Tonga), with Papua New Guinea ranking 9th, Fiji 14th and Kiribati 19th. The report highlights the threat of rising sea-level on PICs, but also underscores their lack of climate adaptation and protection systems. When put into this perspective, whether the infrastructure in these countries is built by Chinese, American, or Australian companies becomes a much less urgent issue.
There is a way forward. Leaders in PICs can leverage the great power competition to their benefits, enlisting countries with ample financial resources to help them prepare for climate change and natural disasters. Vice versa, said great powers can also focus their policy on building capacity in crisis prevention and disaster relief for PICs. The great powers have spent too much time playing chess on the sea, and it is time to turn their attention towards ensuring the chessboard stays afloat.
Image Credit: istockphoto / kertu_ee