Isabella Papay is a third-year history and international relations student at King’s College London. She is interested in international law and investigative journalism that provides insight into changing political affairs in North America and worldwide.
Since the 2022 Russian invasion, the United States has been a staunch supporter of Ukraine’s counteroffensive, contributing an estimated $73.5 billion in military, financial, and humanitarian aid. However, the recent disorder in the contributor’s internal politics puts the continuation of this support at risk.
Congress was thrown into chaos this past month as U.S. lawmakers’ disagreements on budget allocations nearly led to a government shutdown, which would have disrupted federal government operations nationwide. After weeks of Republican infighting and a failed effort to pass a proposed GOP bill, Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy presented a last-minute stopgap funding bill. This bill aimed to win the support of Democrats rather than appease right-wing hardliners, and consequently, it was passed with an overwhelmingly bipartisan vote, averting a government shutdown just hours before the October 1st deadline.
There is one glaring omission from the bill that is cause for international concern: the absence of new aid for Ukraine, specifically the $6 billion aid package the White House and Senate pushed for. The day after the stopgap bill was passed, President Biden reassured Ukraine of the United States’ continued alliance, stating, “We cannot under any circumstances allow America’s support for Ukraine to be interrupted.” In the week following the vote, the President was joined by other supporters of Ukraine in urging Congress to approve a new aid package to support Kyiv. In this matter, the President specifically singled out Speaker McCarthy, stating that he expects the Speaker to “keep his commitment to secure the passage and support needed to help Ukraine.”
However, any hopes in McCarthy were dashed when he was ousted as Speaker of the House on October 3rd in a 216-210 vote after Republican Representative Matt Gaetz introduced a ‘motion to vacate’ McCarthy, citing his reliance on Democrats to pass funding legislation. As this is the first time in its history that the House has voted to remove its speaker, this new period of unpredictability spells even more uncertainty for Ukrainian aid.
While most members in both chambers want to continue funding the war-torn country, support for continuing military aid to Ukraine has been dwindling in the U.S., especially amongst Republicans. According to a survey conducted by the Chicago Council of Global Affairs, support among Republicans for military aid to Ukraine after the initial Russian invasion was 80%. However, as of September 2023, that number has decreased to 50%. This trend is not only evident among the American public but also in the House. Prior to the stopgap vote, the House approved a $300 million aid package for Ukraine in a 331-117 vote, with all dissenting votes coming from Republicans.
On Wednesday, House Republicans nominated Steve Scalise of Louisiana as the next House Speaker. Scalise has consistently voted for Ukrainian aid packages, even supporting the latest tranche of $300 million in aid. However, sceptics are not convinced Scalise will prioritize Ukraine. This is due to his neutral comments on the issue, which earned him a B grade from Democracy Together’s report card, a ranking of Republicans based on their level of support for Ukraine. As the House leadership remains uncertain before Scalise can secure a majority vote, President Biden has expressed his concern over the exit of McCarthy, an advocate for Ukraine, and how that will affect the approval of future aid bills. Without the support of Congress, the White House is limited in the assistance it can provide to Ukraine. Although Biden hinted at alternative means to fund Ukraine without relying on Congress, he did not provide further details and has yet to deliver a formal address on the issue.
With the escalation in the Israel-Palestine conflict, many allies are wondering if the U.S. will discount its commitment to Ukraine by redirecting its support and resources to Israel. In response to this crisis, Republican Representative Jim Jordan called for the House to prioritize aiding Israel over Ukraine. Advocates for Ukraine are urging Congress to link anticipated Israeli military support with more aid for Ukraine to improve the likelihood of its passage. However, no bundle has been formally drafted at this time. Ahead of Wednesday’s NATO meeting, Julianne Smith, the U.S. Ambassador to NATO, addressed the question of split support. “On the question of whether or not U.S. support for Israel could come at the expense of U.S. support for Ukraine, we don’t anticipate any major challenges in that regard,” Smith told reporters.
Advantageously, these layers of bureaucracy have not reached the frontlines yet, as Ukrainian forces will not see any immediate cut in the flow of American support after the stopgap bill. While there is no new assistance for Ukraine, aid is still trickling into the counteroffensive, but slowly, from a rapidly depleting fund. Of the $25.9 billion Congress provided to replenish U.S. military stocks that have been going to Ukraine, there is $1.6 billion left. Also, earlier this year, a Pentagon accounting error overestimated the value of the weapons and other equipment sent to Ukraine, adding $6.2 billion in defence funds for the Ukrainian effort. From this surplus, U.S. Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin announced Wednesday that the U.S. was providing a $200 million aid package, including air defence, artillery and rocket ammunition, counter-drone equipment, and anti-tank weapons.
However, in a letter to Congressional leaders earlier this month, the Pentagon warned that time is running out as it is running out of money to replenish military stock sent to Ukraine and is already forced to slow down resupplying troops. The Pentagon further urged Congress to provide new funding for Ukraine to prevent further slowing of aid flow.
Even with the continued funding of the federal government until November 17th, cohesive action on this issue remains unlikely, especially following the recent chaotic events in the House. Even though Congress has a month to agree on budgetary allocations for a long-term spending bill, divisions remain not just between parties but among the Republicans on fundamental spending questions. Thus, it is not unthinkable that the same drama will unfold again in November. The question remains: will Ukraine face the same fate this November at the hands of another Congressional gridlock?
Image credit: AP News
